Rudy is a big winner?

All of the buzz today has been how Mitt Romney is one and done and how Rudy Giuliani's strategy now looks like the best one. Someone must do a reality check here:

Argument 1: Rudy's strategy was based upon his national lead in the polls. Watching the field take each other out early on plays to his strategy.

Reality Check 1: Rudy's national lead is a thing of the past. There is no longer a national front-runner! As of 1/3/08 at Rasmussen, Rudy was tied for fifth, and on 1/4/08, he was in fourth place, ahead of only Thompson by one point. Rudy's support will continue to diminish as he loses badly in early states. We do see the media attempting to resurrect Rudy with all the talk of his "winning" after a sixth place finish in Iowa. How does placing behind everyone, including Ron Paul (no offense to those who support him), amount to winning? This is getting crazy.

Argument 2: Rudy can now pull this off because he has the money to play this out nationally.

Reality Check: He may have money, but so does Romney.

Argument 3: Romney's campaign is on life support because his early state strategy now appears to not be working.

Reality check: Rasmussen on 1/3/08 had Romney in the lead NATIONALLY. On 1/4/08, he is one point behind McCain for second place NATIONALLY. Romney no longer needs the early state momentum strategy - his early leads in the early states already put him in play nationally. Romney's second place finish in a state whose strong evangelical turnout guaranteed a Huckabee win is much stronger than McCain's (4th) or Rudy's (6th).

Argument 4: A loss in New Hampshire would doom Romney's campaign.

Reality check: Going into February 5th, it is conceivable that the score card reads as follows (using the 3, 2, 1 point scoring system for gold, silver, and bronze finishes in states):

Iowa - Huckabee (3), Romney (2), Thompson (1)
Wyoming* - Romney (3), McCain (2), Huckabee (1)
New Hampshire - McCain (3), Romney (2), Huckabee (1)
Michigan - Romney (3), Huckabee(2), McCain (1)
Nevada - Romney (3), Giuliani (2), Huckabee (1)
South Carolina - Huckabee (3), Romney (2), Thompson (1)
Florida - Giuliani (3), Huckabee (2), Romney (1)

*I had to make up Wyoming numbers since nobody is polling in Wyoming. I believe Romney will carry the state, however.

This would leave scores as follows:
Romney (16)
Huckabee (13)
McCain (6)
Giuliani (5)
Thompson (2)

Who then would have a national lead - (after several states vote, not just one or two), money, and delegate counts in their favor? I'm a little tired with the media trying to control the entire process with their spin and their take on everything. I don't see why Guiliani gets good press today and Romney gets bad press - other than the expectations game. Well, it's high time we reset expectations and get a reality check! Romney can be in as strong a position come February 5th as anyone.